Modeling climate change impact on chickpea production and adaptation options in the semi-arid North-Eastern Ethiopia

Adem Mohammed Ahmed, Tamado Tana, Piara Singh, Adamu Molla

Abstract


Climate change is projected to alter the growing conditions of chickpea in many areas and there would be substantial reduction in grain yield of the crop due to drought. We used CROPGRO-Chickpea model to evaluate climate change impacts and adaptation options at two different locations. The simulation result at Sirinka indicated that chickpea grain yield could increase by12% and 13% during the 2030s and 2050s time periods without the direct effect of CO2 fertilization. Similarly, grain yield of chickpea at Chefa site could increase only by 5% and 7% during the respective time periods. However, with considering the direct effect of CO2 fertilization, grain yield of chickpea at Sirinka could increase as much as 20% and 34% in the 2030s and 2050s, respectively whereas the increase at Chefa site could only be 12% and 22% for the respective time periods as compared to the baseline yield. Adaptation options evaluated were supplemental irrigation and cultivars of different maturity groups. The result at Sirinka showed that the short duration cultivar could increase grain yield by 11%, 10% and 10% during the baseline, the 2030s and 2050s, respectively whereas that of the long duration cultivar could decrease by 7%, 9% and 10% as compared to the standard (control) cultivar. On the other hand, the short duration cultivar at Chefa site could decrease grain yield by 9%, 3% and 3% for the respective time periods. Supplemental irrigation at Sirinka site could increase grain yield of chickpea by 47%, 47% and 46% during the baseline, the 2030s and 2050s time periods, respectively whereas the increase at Chefa could only be 17%,16% and 18% as compared to rainfed yield. Application supplemental irrigation and the use of cultivars of different maturity groups could be considered as important adaptation options to increase chickpea grain yield under climate change condition.
Key words: Adaptation, CROPGRO-Chickpea model, Drought, Semi-arid

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12895/jaeid.2016110.510